Forecasting extreme ENSO events and the associated hydrological impact in eastern Australia

This research presents ENSO forecasting and explores ENSO impact by investigating climate and catchment forcing on hydrological response (streamflow). Climate is used as a donor input into catchment types both similar to, and substantially different from the original catchment type. This approach allows catchment response in ENSO phases to be explored with and without implicit climate differences. Research outcomes are: Reliable forecasting (by reducing false positive predictions); That climate is dominant over catchment characteristics in driving hydrological response; That catchment groups have implicit climate differences; The action of La Nina and IPO increasing flood risk, is through increased frequency/duration of events, not increased rainfall intensity