Long-term functional outcomes in polytrauma: a fundamentally new approach is needed in prediction

Purpose: Modern trauma care has reduced mortality but poor long-term outcomes with low follow-up rates are common with limited recommendations for improvements. The aim of this study was to describe the impact of severe injury on the health-related quality of life, specifically characterise the non-responder population and to identify modifiable predictors of poorer outcomes. Methods: Five-year (2012–2016) prospective cohort study was performed at a level 1 trauma centre. Baseline Short-Form Health Survey (SF36) was collected at admission, and at 6 and 12 months postinjury together with demographics, injury mechanism and severity, psychosocial wellbeing, and return to work capacity. Results: Of the 306 consecutive patients [age 52 ± 17 years, male 72%, ISS 21 (17, 29), mortality 5%], 195 (64%) completed questionnaires at baseline, and at 12 months. Preinjury physical health scores were above the general population (53.1 vs. 50.3, p < 0.001) and mental health component was consistent with the population norms (51.7 vs. 52.9, p = 0.065). One year following injury, both physical health (13.2, 95% CI 14.8, 11.6) and mental health scores (6.0, 95% CI 8.1, 3.8) were significantly below age- and sex-adjusted preinjury baselines. Non-responders had similar ISS but with a lower admission GCS, and were more likely to be younger, and without comorbidities, employment, or university education. Conclusion: Contrary to their better than population norm preinjury health status, polytrauma patients remain functionally impaired at least 1 year after injury. The identified high risk for non-responding group needs more focused efforts for follow-up. A fundamentally different approach is required in polytrauma research which identify modifiable predictors of poor long-term outcomes.