FDG-PET parameters predict for recurrence in anal cancer - results from a prospective, multicentre clinical trial

Background: To investigate the prognostic significance of positron emission tomography (PET) parameters from F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET scans performed pre- and post- chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) for squamous cell carcinoma of the anal canal (AC).Methods: From January 2013 to January 2017, 19 patients with non-metastatic AC enrolled on a prospective trial underwent FDG-PET/CT imaging before and 12 weeks following CRT. A computer-generated volume of interest (VOI) was snapped around the primary tumour using six different standard uptake value (SUV) thresholds and the following parameters were extracted: SUV max, mean, median, standard deviation and peak as well as metabolic tumour volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis. Exact logistic regression and ROC AUC analyses were performed for each metric at each timepoint.Results: With a median follow up of 15.8 months, 3/19 patients had a local recurrence and 5/19 had any recurrence. On post-CRT PET, the median SUV within a VOI bounded by an SUV of 3 correlated with local recurrence (p < 0.01) and demonstrated excellent discrimination (ROC AUC 1.00, perfect separation was achieved at a median SUV of 3.38). The mean SUV at this threshold did not quite reach significance for prediction of local recurrence (p = 0.06) but demonstrated excellent discrimination (ROC AUC 0.91). The MTV bounded by a threshold of 41% SUVmax on the pre-CRT PET predicted for any recurrence (p = 0.03) and showed excellent discrimination (ROC AUC 0.89).Conclusions: FDG-PET parameters are predictive of recurrence in AC. FDG-PET may represent a valuable tool for prognostication and response assessment in AC.