Conceptualising project uncertainty in the context of building refurbishment safety: a systematic review

Project uncertainty is an inherent attribute in safety-critical projects, such as building refurbishment. While it has been suggested that project safety performance is often challenged due to project uncertainty, uncertainties are yet to be conceptualised in building refurbishment projects. The purpose of this research is to propose an industry-specific factor model of project uncertainty that can be used to diagnose and assess uncertainty in construction refurbishment research and practice. An extensive review of existing literature, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, where 53 articles were selected to identify the determinants of project uncertainty and strategies for managing uncertainty. In total, 23 project uncertainty factors were identified and clustered under the taxonomy of uncertain information, uncertain complexity, uncertain temporal clarity, and uncertain understanding. Thus, twelve management strategies for coping with uncertainty in building refurbishment projects were determined. Learning and a flexible working environment were the most frequently raised strategies among all the reviewed articles. The factor model proposed enables project managers and academics to better understand, assess and manage project uncertainty and deliver safer building refurbishment projects. As such, it also provides a sufficient platform and initiates debate towards the development of uncertainty management strategies to better prepare for surprises as projects progress.